Asian Journal of Pregnancy and Childbirth

This study utilizes empirical modeling and statistical analysis to examine the temporal evolution of caesarean births in Ghana over the period 2008–2017. Building upon a robust linear framework augmented by an exponential component, the research probes the quasi-linear characteristics of the global caesarean birth frequency ^Nglob (t). The model demonstrates strong explanatory power, with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.954208) indicating effective capture of temporal trends. A strategic procedure is applied to assess deviations from quasi-linearity, revealing a range of values. The relative deviation metric, together with a supplementary metric, supports a nuanced interpretation of these deviations. The annual periodicity observed in the relative deviation suggests that cultural factors influence caesarean birth rates. Region-specific analysis extends the investigation to ten regions, incorporating cumulative births (N_i,tot) and relative birth rates (N_i,rel) to provide broader insights into caesarean births across geographic subunits.Linear regression estimates optimal parameters, while correlation coefficients indicate the strength of the model fit. Monthly frequency rates per 100,000 inhabitants (α_i) were computed to illuminate regional variations. Deviations from linearity are assessed for each region, highlighting distinct regional dynamics. The study concludes with the introduction of a reduced-frequency metric, which indicates an annual increase in caesarean births per 100,000 inhabitants. A linear model is employed to forecast future trends, supported by a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.93655). The research offers comprehensive insights into the dynamics of caesarean births in Ghana, with implications for healthcare planning, policy formulation, and ongoing monitoring of maternal health trends.